NOTE: This post has not been updated. It was deleted by accident.
INTRODUCTION
In terms of time, Transient 2 and Transient 3 occur at almost the same time, suggesting they are one pre-planned attack using two transients. For example, the Transient 3 MAGA crowd at Capitol East led by probable Proud Boys breached the USCP police lines at 1359H, about 11 minutes after the Proud Boys begin their ascent up the Northwest Stairs and just 13 minutes before the Proud Boys breach the Northwest Courtyard windows and doors on the Senate side on Transient 2.
Transient 2 is treated as the main Proud Boys attack (or chi, the hard surprise) because named Proud Boys either are specifically time-space located going through the Northwest Courtyard windows and doors that Dominic Pezzola shattered with a stolen riot shield and Joseph Biggs entered, respectively; or, I have assumed the named Proud Boys entered through the Northwest Doors because the government has not mentioned them entering the Capitol in any other breach. Not all Proud Boys entered the Capitol building. There are at least three named Proud Boys who re-enter the Capitol building through the Columbus Doors on Transient 3 after having entered the Capitol building on Transient 2.
Transient 2 (see Figure 10) is a slide off from Transient 1. Having fixed the focus of the police forces on defending the West Plaza steps and terraces by inciting attacks along the right flank of the insurgents, the Proud Boys then slid their personnel northward (their left flank) and fought their way up the Northwest Stairs through the Northwest Courtyard and penetrating the Capitol through the Northwest Doors and Windows.
Transient 3 is analyzed as a separate transient in Part 4 for four specific reasons.
One, it is located on the east side of the Capitol while Transient 2 is on the west side of the Capitol. As a battlefield tactic, it is a separate transient, even if the times of the attack along the two transients appear coordinated.
Two, the Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation staged on the lawn in the northeast quadrant of the Capitol building. The Oath Keepers’ VIP Security force was summoned by PERSON TEN from an undisclosed location at least one mile away to that northeast quadrant location.
Three, the communications of the Proud Boys leadership, after breaching the Capitol on Transient 2, and of the Oath Keepers leadership during Transient 3, need to be analyzed in conjunction with each other.
Four, the design of the attack—three transients with the Oath Keepers waiting patiently on Transient 3 for the Columbus Doors to be breached by someone other than themselves—reveals that this staging and waiting makes sense only if there had been prior planning with the Proud Boys breaching the Capitol on Transient 2. As a military maneuver on its own it makes no sense.
TRANSIENT 2: KEY TERRAIN CHALLENGES TO INSURGENTS’ OPERATIONSThe FBI has revealed in various government filings that some Proud Boys were uploading live videos. Marcy Wheeler is certainly correct in suggesting that if the Proud Boys had someone located away from the Capitol and monitoring the various Proud Boy livestreams, that “you would have visibility on what was going on inside almost immediately after the first group of the Proud Boys breached the Capitol.” Wheeler also wondered if “someone were providing command and control remotely.” Indeed, Wheeler revealed that another government filing on Ethan Nordean confirmed in a footnote that “UCC-1 [Unindicted Co-Conspirator-1] and PERSON-2 are not believed to have been present on the Capitol grounds, but rather indicated that they were monitoring events remotely using livestreams and other methods” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel).
For purposes of this analysis, the Proud Boys’ external location will be called the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center (TOC), which is what it would be called in the Army. The Navy would call it a Combat Information Center. Interestingly, the FBI has not revealed the location of this Proud Boys TOC manned by UCC-1 and Person-2.
Thus, the Proud Boys had an external Tactical Operations Center. It would not have been difficult to make it a Joint Tactical Operations Center with the inclusion of one or more Oath Keepers’ ground controllers.
We certainly know the Oath Keepers had a ground commander, PERSON TEN. In the “Third Superseding Indictment” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) for the Oath Keepers, PERSON TEN’s location is not given by the FBI until after the attack is over, around 1600H, when Person Ten, Rhodes (Person One), the “stack,” and the VIP Security detail gather for an Oath Keepers post-attack meeting and maybe a “hot scrub.”
A Priority Intelligence Requirement (PIR) is to determine if and where the Oath Keepers had external Tactical Operations Center, or, if the Oath Keepers ground controllers were co-located with the Proud Boys.
A second Priority Intelligence Requirement is a fuller release of Proud Boys and Oath Keepers communications from 1400H to about 1630H. The Department of Justice has released some of those communications—enough to provide the factual foundation for various indictments—but not enough to get a noticeably clear understanding of the dynamics of the attack. This point will become clearer in the discussion below of Gabriel GARCIA’s transit around the Capitol.
If you look at how complicated the attack is, three transients, one of which is not visible from the west side of the Capitol, an external Tactical Operations Center located in DC would be necessary. It would also be necessary because the key terrain features of the Capitol building complicate coordination and receiving Situation Reports (SITREPs), whether in the form of livestreams or using the encrypted “Boots on the Ground” Telegram channel, would be required.
Consider the key terrain features of the Capitol: three floors to be navigated: Ground Level: The Crypt; Principal Level Two containing the Senate Chamber, the House Chamber, and the Rotunda leading to Transient 1 and Transient 3; the third floor leading to the Senate gallery.
Then consider the dimensions of the Capitol building.
The Architect of the Capitol stated that from north to south is 751 feet and the widest dimension, east to west, is 350 feet. If you divide the north-south axis in fourths and the east-west axis in half, a transit from the Northwest Door (putting it on same level for the calculation) to the center of the Rotunda is about 275 feet—187 feet plus 87 feet. Those 275 feet are filled with rioters who probably do not know where they are going; who are moving slowly because the hallways are narrow and crowded; and who may be bottlenecked by police.
Then consider that the Proud Boys’ plan, as we know from the “First Superseding Indictment” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) of the Proud Boys’ leadership, was to divide their forces into teams, presumably task-oriented teams with designated team leaders. If they task-organized as roughly four-man fire teams each having one subscriber to the “Boots On The Ground” Telegram channel, that will support a force of at least 240 Proud Boys. But we do not know how many Proud Boys were present and how many were in the Capitol building.
ANALYSIS CAVEATS
Both Insurgent Hunter and DeTrumpify websites have done an excellent job of extracting screenshots from videos shot on January 6 and providing their best estimates of a timestamp of the action.
There are some particularly important caveats to this intelligence analysis.
Federal prosecutors have stated many times that they have revealed only a fraction of the evidence they have collected against alleged perpetrators and leaders. They have revealed the minimum number of facts to provide the factual foundation for the charges. Regarding Proud Boys communications, the government has only released a small number of encrypted transmissions to indicate an effort of at least five Proud Boys engaged in planning the attack and other encrypted transmissions that occur after the Capitol is breached at 1413H. There is surveillance footage taken inside the Capitol and cell phone location data that would enhance their cases and the findings in this analysis.
The second major caveat is that it is exceedingly difficult to determine visually who is and who is not a Proud Boy in the videos and the total number of Proud Boys in their order of battle. We know that the national leader, Enrique TARRIO, specified that the Proud Boys were not to wear their traditional black and yellow colors. Both Joseph Biggs and Charles Donohoe reinforced this message with the directive to blend in.
From a military perspective this is particularly important. One, it conceals your total strength. Two, it allows the Proud Boys to maneuver within the MAGA mob without being seen. Their form, number, and direction can remain ambiguous. Reviewing Status Coup’s video reveals, for example, that the Arizona Proud Boys—visible in their orange hats with Arizona flag—move about the MAGA mob, shifting between the right flank and the center until they disappear completely.
In terms of estimating their total strength on January 6, that is exceedingly difficult to estimate. For example, the Wall Street Journal’s analysis (2:20 on video) suggested during the Proud Boys’ Recon March that “On the day of the event, more than 100 Proud Boys from around the country were there.” The problem is that the Proud Boys were not dressed like Proud Boys. The four leaders wore civilian clothes that were indistinguishable from the crowd. Some Proud Boys, like Chrestman and Kuehne, looked like Oath Keepers or III%ers in their tactical gear. Some Proud Boys put orange tape on their helmets or clothes. But many did not.
Below is a photograph taken by independent photographer Jon Cherry for Getty Images and displayed at ArtNet. The image published at ArtNet is wider and provides more depth than the photo put in Worrell’s filing. Cherry captured an iconic photo showing the Proud Boys at the East Capitol during their Recon March. Cherry described his observations during the Recon March: “But I joined the Proud Boys in their formation as they marched from the west side of the Capitol to the east side of the Capitol. They started getting each other riled up, screaming and chanting. Some of them announced that it was time to rush the Capitol.” Picture 12 is taken from Worrell’s “Statement of Facts” (pdf) via DOJ.
Does this look like 100 Proud Boys? How would you tell a Proud Boy from a MAGA? DeTrumpify’s order of battle for the Proud Boys, taken from their timeline analysis, concluded that “approximately 200 Proud Boys” were present. They later revised this to between 100 and 200, according to their last edit on February 18, 2021, before the website disappeared.
TRANSIENT 2: PROUD BOYS’ TACTICAL OPTIONS
Transient 2’s penetration from the Northwest Courtyard is on Ground Level One. The Architect of the Capitol describes the Ground Floor containing The Crypt, which is directly underneath the Rotunda, which is up on Principal Level Two. The Crypt contains 40 Doric columns and has a star on the floor.
Figure 11 below is from the perspective of Principal Level Two. It assumes for brevity that the Proud Boys ascended one flight of stairs to reach the Senate and House chambers and the Rotunda. The Washington Post’s diagrams of Officer Goodman leading the rioters illustrates this key terrain feature. The Post stated, “The mob chases Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman to a staircase leading to the second floor.” The second floor is where the Senate Chamber is, and Officer Goodman guided the mob away from that chamber.
Having successfully pivoted off Transient 1 and penetrated the Capitol building on Ground Level One by 1413H, the Proud Boys’ and Oath Keepers’ planners were faced with four tactical options (see Figure 11) at Principal Level Two.
Option One: From the Ground Level, a rapid ascent up one flight of stairs and turn into the Senate Chamber where the 100 Senators and the Vice President were debating the Electoral College vote for Arizona. This is the route taken in the famous video showing USCP Officer Eugene Goodman encountering the rioters after their entrance and leads them up the stairs and then away from the Senate Chamber.
Option One is the entire purpose of the conspiracy and the assault: to stop the certification of the Electoral College count by both houses of Congress. If this tactical movement is not executed, the entire mission is in danger of a catastrophic failure.
Option Two: A rapid ascent up one flight of stairs, turn south (right) into the Rotunda and turn east (left) to open the Columbus Doors where the Oath Keepers are waiting. This is Transient 3.
Option Two must be executed rapidly to get Transient 3 into the Capitol building. The Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation has been, essentially, sitting on the lawn in the northeast quadrant, adjacent Northeast Drive, for about 60 minutes, more or less. They do not leave their staging area until around 1435H. If the Columbus Doors are not breached, Transient 3 for the Oath Keepers is a strategic failure.
Option Three: Reach the Rotunda, but turn west (right), open the doors, and attack the police forces on the West Plaza terrace from the rear. This would destroy any police resistance to Transient 1 entering the Capitol.
Option Four: reach the Rotunda and head south (straight) towards the House Chamber.
TRANSIENT 2 AS THE MAIN BREACH
In the government’s motion to oppose Nordean’s release (pdf) from pre-trial detention (via Politico), the government claimed that Nordean “led the Proud Boys…with the specific plans to: split up into groups, attempt to break into the Capitol building from as many different points as possible, and prevent the Joint Session of Congress from Certifying the Electoral College results.”
This intelligence analysis has argued that the Proud Boys used Transient 1 as a deception to fix the focus of the joint USCP and MPD forces’ efforts at defending the Western Plaza and its steps and terraces leading to the West Door. We know of only one Proud Boy who remained at Transient 1, Christopher WORRELL, who was photographed at time-stamp 1431H spraying a chemical (pdf) (via DOJ) at police officers from the left flank of the MAGA mob.
This analysis assumes that all of the Proud Boys who eventually entered the Capitol, identified by name or unidentified, entered through the breach at the Northwest Courtyard doors and windows.
DeTrumpify’s extraction of screenshots to create a timeline of Proud Boys activities indicates that the Proud Boys initiate their attack via Transient 2 at 1328H. DeTrumpify reported that Pezzola was with “several orange-hatted Proud Boys” near the police line while III%er Robert GIESWEIN was on the left flank of the police with “with another group of orange-hatted Proud Boys.” At 1337H (see Picture 13), Gieswein “takes hold of barricades attempting to push through Capitol steps, west side police line.”
The research collective Insurgent Hunter (aka Jan6Evidence) time the initial breach of the police line at the bottom of the Northwest Stairs at 1348H, which also corresponds to the government’s motion regarding Pezzola’s pre-trial detention (pdf, via Empty Wheel). In that motion, the government uses a Parler video later posted by the non-partisan ProPublica website showing Pezzola heading up the Northwest Stairs at approximately 1348H.
The Washington Post, which synchronized MPD communications with video taken at the insurrection states that at 1349H “rioters push past the police” and at 1350H the MPD declares a “breach of the Capitol,” meaning the rioters are no longer contained in front of police lines. At 1403H, an MPD commander orders police off the Northwest Stairs as the US Capitol Police begin to withdraw their forces inside the Capitol building itself, according to the Post’s analysis.
There is universal consensus that Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola smashes the windows adjacent to the Northwest Doors and facing the Northwest Courtyard by 1413H. The government’s “First Superseding Indictment” (pdf, via DOJ) for Pezzola, William PEPE, and Matthew GREENE, puts the window smashing by 1413H. Within minutes, many Proud Boys and rioters have entered through the doors and windows on the Senate or north side of the Capitol building.
The next set of photographs taken from DeTrumpify’s timeline, based on screenshots from ProPublica’s collection of Parler videos uploaded by various rioters, shows the Proud Boys getting ready to breach the police line in front of the Northwest Stairs between 1346H and 1349H.
Picture 14 (from a Parler video) “shows twelve or more Proud Boy marchers among a small crowd at the foot of the tall stairs under the north scaffold at the western lower terrace.”
Picture 15 from Insurgent Hunters shows a column of attackers, including Proud Boys, breaching the police line at 1348H and “gaining access to the NW Steps.”
The next series of pictures, Pictures 16A through 16G, are taken from the YouTube video posted by Hunting Insurrectionists (with a timestamp shown) and were accessed via Insurgent Hunters.
Once the police lost the skirmish at the bottom and top of the Northwest Stairs, a classic chi attack pitting strength against weakness, the Proud Boys and Gieswein in Transient 2 walk across the Northwest Courtyard, then race to the doors and windows facing the courtyard, and then begin pounding on the doors and windows. Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola at 1413H is the first to smash open the Northwest Window and Gieswein and Pezzola are among the first to penetrate the Capitol building. About 30 seconds after the windows are smashed out, the Northwest Doors are kicked open and a column of rioters enter.
One of the difficulties we face with the analysis is that we do not know how many Proud Boys entered the Capitol building through the Northwest Courtyard entrance. There are indications, however, that the Proud Boys attempted to Options One and Four. They did attempt Option Three, but in a very bizarre and unexpected way. Option 3 is actually accomplished by a MAGA mob, though it is unknown how many, if any, Proud Boys were in that “large crowd.”
Option One, up one flight of stairs to the Senate Chamber, was undertaken by Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola, III%er Robert Gieswein, and QAnon adherent who led the rioters up the stairs, Douglas JENSEN.
The Washington Post’s analysis of the attack inside the Capitol building noted, “After breaking in on the Senate side of the Capitol, rioters began moving from the ground floor up one level to the chamber itself. Vice President Pence, who had been presiding, was moved to a nearby office at 2:13 p.m. The mob passed by about one minute later.”
Picture 17 below shows all three rioters in a room away from the Senate Chamber. Jensen followed Officer Goodman’s deceptive maneuvers. But it is obvious that Pezzola was either not briefed on the location of the Senate Chamber, or, in his adrenaline rush having been the first to smash the Capitol building’s windows, forgot what he had been briefed on where the Senate Chamber was located.
Had Pezzola and Gieswein not followed Jensen into this catastrophic strategic failure, they would have entered a full Senate Chamber on live national television with Donald Trump watching in the White House. Did Pezzola lead an entire Proud Boys task-group into a dead end and a catastrophic strategic failure?
The Washington Post’s timeline stated that the Secret Service had moved Vice President Pence from the “Senate chamber to a nearby office” at 1413H. The Pezzola-Gieswein attack column reached the “the precipice of the Senate chamber, where lawmakers are still inside” at 1414H. Had Pezzola and the Proud Boys/MAGA column turned into the Senate chamber at 1414-1415H, the entire dynamic of the attack would have changed. Anywhere from 100 to 300 MAGA rioters would be in the Senate chamber on live television. The USCP and MPD police forces might have abandoned their positions and rushed to the Senate chamber—thus allowing more rioters into the Capitol building.
And if an element of the Proud Boys had immediately transited to the Rotunda and turned towards the Columbus Doors where the Oath Keepers and Transient 3 rioters were trying to gain entry, the Senate might have been flooded with more rioters. And the House chamber would have been put under heavier pressure from the rioters sooner.
Another Priority Intelligence Requirement is to determine the total number of Proud Boys who entered the Capitol building, how they were task-organized, who led each task group, where they transited, and their communications during the assault.
Option Two would have been the second most important option to pursue. To open the Columbus Doors on the east side of the Capitol, the Proud Boys would have had to ascend one flight of stairs, entered the Rotunda, and turned east (left) towards the Columbus Doors. Behind those doors waited the Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation and the MAGA mob on Transient 3.
At least one Proud Boy entered via the Northwest Courtyard breach and went immediately to the vicinity of the Speaker’s Lobby where rioter Ashli Bobbit was killed trying to climb through a door window. According to the FBI’s “Statement of Facts” for Andrew Bennett, he entered the Capitol building around 1417H and by 1442H he is broadcasting from the vicinity of the Speaker’s Lobby. A “gunshot can be heard…[during] Live Video 4” (pdf) (via DOJ).
THE TRANSIENT 2 TO TRANSIENT 3 MOVEMENT AND BREACH
Insurgents on Transient 3, on the east side of the Capitol, initially breach the outer police barricade and police line at 1357H, 9 minutes after the Proud Boys begin their ascent up the Northwest Stairs, according to Insurgent Hunter. The rioters reach the Columbus Doors, located on the East Capitol Center Plaza, at 1406H. The FBI’s “Statement of Facts” (pdf) (via DOJ) for Hunter EMHKE indicates that Ehmke smashed open a window on the northeast side of the Capitol at “approximately” 1415H. Ehmke broke the window and Officer Fluke and two other USCP officers arrested Ehmke after struggling amidst the broken glass, while other officers created a perimeter to prevent the MAGA mob from entering through the broken window.
Insurgent Hunter’s analysis indicates that the Columbus Doors were finally breached at 1438H, which is consistent with the timeframe (1439H) suggested by the FBI in their “Statement of Facts” (pdf, via DOJ) regarding Philip GRILLO who, along with “a large crowd,” opened the Columbus Doors from the inside. Grillo had entered the Capitol through the Northwest Doors at 1420H and approximately 15 minutes later was near the entryway at the Rotunda leading to a small room where the Columbus Doors were located (see Figure 12).
The Columbus Doors, strategic option 3, were opened from the inside, but not by the Proud Boys (see Pictures 18A through F). The FBI’s “Statement of Facts” for Proud Boys Arthur JACKMAN (pdf) and for Paul RAE (pdf) (both via EmptyWheel) shows Biggs, Jackman, and Rae outside the Columbus Doors at 1439H and re-entering through the Columbus Doors around 1440H, but certainly before the Oath Keepers entered at 1441H (Picture 18G). The DOJ’s opposition to Meggs’ release from pre-trial detention shows the Oath Keepers “stack” formation fully through the Columbus Doors at 1441H.
Three government filings reveal that Philip GRILLO (pdf) (via DOJ), Nathaniel DEGRAVE (pdf) (via EmptyWheel), and Ronald SANDLIN (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) were part of a “large crowd” that entered a small room from the Rotunda, pushed against three police officers (between 1435H and 1439H), and eventually forced open the doors around 1439H. Two other individuals were also assisting the opening of the Columbus Doors, Elias COSTIANES (pdf) (via DOJ) and Christian SECOR (pdf) (via EmptyWheel). The government has not yet identified any Proud Boys among the interior mob pushing against the Columbus Doors. But the Proud Boys were “incognito,” so it is difficult to establish if they were present in the crowd.
In Picture 18F (later below), the Columbus Doors breach time is noted as 1439H. This is based on a time given in a government motion (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) filed on April 1, 2021, against Joshua BLACK. The government stated that “Capitol surveillance interior video shows…At approximately 2:39 p.m., [1439H] exterior rioters rioters began streaming in.”
What makes this activity at the Columbus Doors so interesting is that when those doors are finally opened, the Proud Boys trio of Floridians—Biggs, Jackman, and Rae—having exited the Capitol and transited the north side of the building—re-enter the Capitol just ahead of the Oath Keepers “stack” led by fellow Floridian Kelly MEGGS.
It is unclear how quickly the Proud Boys could have reached the Columbus Doors had Joseph Biggs directed a second element to move in that direction, in addition to a first element heading upstairs towards the Senate Chamber. Had Biggs and the Proud Boys acted quicker and with greater determination than Grillo, who entered about 6 to 7 minutes after Biggs, the Oath Keepers on Transient 3 might have entered the Capitol by 1430H instead of 1441H. It is unclear how long Grillo and the “large crowd” dawdled at entrance way to the Columbus Doors, so it is possible that Biggs and the Proud Boys could have arrived at the Columbus Doors by 1425H.
In Pictures 18A to 18G, the times for the pictures 18A, 18B, 18C, and 18D are approximate. The FBI claims that Grillo reached the entryway about 15 minutes after he entered the Capitol building, which makes the time on Picture 18A at 1435H. However, there is clearly a lag between 1435H and 1439H when the FBI states that the Columbus Doors were breached. The timestamp on Picture 18G shows the Oath Keepers fully inside the Capitol building at 1441H. Maybe they walked in at 1440H.
PROUD BOYS’ TACTICAL FAILURES ON TRANSIENT 2
Emblematic of the tactical failures of the Proud Boys after they achieved their “hard shock” entry via the Northwest Courtyard on Transient 2 are the maneuvers of Gabriel Garcia, then Jerod and Joshua KLEIN (brothers), and then of Biggs, Jackman, and Rae. These failures all relate to the failure to open the Columbus Doors for the Transient 3 entry of the Oath Keepers and the MAGA mob. Complicating this analysis is that the FBI has not released the communication transmissions for these individuals in sufficient detail between 1414H and 1439H. We have some of these communications, but the actual movements suggest confusion, if not panic.
First up is Proud Boy Gabriel Garcia’s maneuvers.
We know Garcia entered the Capitol building at roughly the same time as Biggs, 1414H, according to the “First Superseding Indictment” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) of the Proud Boys. His next certain location comes via his livestream from the Crypt at 1419H, which is on the Ground Level, that is, the same level he entered the Capitol via the Northwest Courtyard.
Garcia’s first livestream video is documented in the FBI’s “Statement of Facts” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel). According to the “Statement of Facts,” Garcia posted a video about 5:30 minutes long during which Garcia is engaged in an “aggressive confrontation” with USCP officers.
Wheeler is certainly correct that Garcia would be transmitting useful intelligence information to the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center (TOC). Wheeler then quotes several paragraphs from the “Statement of Facts” in which Garcia is inciting the crowd and hurling verbal abuse at the officers.
But I believe what Garcia transmitted to the Proud Boys’ TOC was that he was in the wrong location. The Crypt is directly below the Rotunda. Had Garcia followed the same transit route, but one floor above him, he would have had line-of-sight to the Columbus Doors.
So, if the livestream from the Crypt started at 1419H and lasted for nearly six minutes, until let us say to 1425H, Garcia’s next confirmed location—via another livestream and a CCTV surveillance camera is roughly at 1434H from the Rotunda, according to the FBI’s statement. It is not clear when Garcia entered the Rotunda. In other words, Garcia left the “aggressive confrontation” at the Crypt and went up one flight of stairs and entered the Rotunda.
That transit certainly suggests that Garcia’s first maneuver to the Crypt may have been a mistake and his second transit to the Rotunda may have been to correct that mistake. The FBI has not released communications between Garcia and the Proud Boys TOC to confirm that the second maneuver was to correct the first maneuver’s mistake. However, it is clear from the CCTV still photo that Garcia is nearly completely oblivious to the Grillo-DeGrave-Sandlin “large crowd” of between 20 and 30 rioters standing inside the Rotunda, but possibly at the entrance way leading to a small room that contains the Columbus Doors. Picture 19 shows his focus is away from what looks like that large crowd at a possible doorway.
The next bizarre maneuver is undertaken by the Klein brothers—two 20-somethings from Oregon. According to their “Indictment,” (pdf) (via DOJ), the brothers separately entered via the Northwest Courtyard at 1416H (JP) and at 1418H (Matthew). The two brothers have nearly an hour inside the Capitol building before they do anything that is remotely useful to the attack.
At 1416H, JP Klein had a celebratory encounter with an “an identified member of the Proud Boys (‘PERSON 1’).” At an unspecified time, JP Klein had another celebratory encounter with PERSON-1 in the Rotunda. Then, at another unspecified time both brothers exited the Capitol building and tried to forcibly open the North Doors which are located on the north face of the Capitol building.
What makes the brothers’ movements strange is that the “North Door Siege” occurs between 1512H and 1634H, according to Insurgent Hunter’s new timeline (see the 3:12 p.m. entry).
What were they doing for nearly an hour inside the Capitol? Why were they not directed to transit the Rotunda and attempt to open the Columbus Doors during that missing hour? Who directed them outside to gain entry through the North Door?
Figure 13 depicts the Klein brothers’ maneuver at an unspecified time for a siege that spanned from 1512H to 1634H.
If the Klein brothers’ maneuvers are baffling, the maneuver of Biggs, Jackman, and Rae is downright bizarre.
Biggs is one of four Proud Boys leaders indicted on the leadership indictment (pdf) (see EmptyWheel). He is a subscriber to the leadership’s “New MOSD” Telegram channel. He was heavily involved in the frantic Proud Boys effort to reformulate their battle plan between the morning of January 4, when Enrique Tarrio is arrested, and the evening of January 5, when a plan is briefed to Tarrio.
Biggs entered the Capitol building at 1414H. According to the “Statement of Facts” (pdf) for Rae (via EmptyWheel), he entered the Capitol at the same time through the same door as Biggs and communicated with Biggs once he entered. Jackman’s “Statement of Facts” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) states he entered the Capitol at 1414H.
At an unspecified time, Biggs, Jackman, and Rae exited the Capitol building, transited around the north side of the building, and emerged at or near the top of the stairs leading to the Columbus Doors. Probably at 1439H, Biggs, Jackman, and Rae, plus two other probable Proud Boys take a group photograph (see Picture 20). Biggs, Jackman, and Rae then re-entered the Capitol at 1440H, according to the two FBI statements for Jackman and Rae.
Figure 14 shows the circuitous route of the three Proud Boys that again makes no tactical sense. We have already seen that Grillo, who had entered 6 minutes after Biggs through the same Northwest Courtyard door, managed to transit to and through the Rotunda (where Garcia was at 1434H) and with a large crowd congregating at 1435H at the Rotunda entrance way open the Columbus Doors from the inside at 1439H allowing Transient 3 to enter.
Who directed Biggs to exit the Capitol and transit to Transient 3 to meet the Oath Keepers? When did that directive come? Why exit the Capitol, when the most direct route was through the Rotunda and the greatest probability of opening the Columbus Doors, was from the inside?
CONCLUSION
The movements of various Proud Boys members examined above indicate that their attack basically fell apart after they achieved their “hard shock” by breaching and penetrating the Capitol building via the Northwest Courtyard windows and doors.
The design of the attack with three transients and the Oath Keepers waiting on Transient 3 dictated that the Proud Boys open the Columbus Doors to allow Transient 3 to penetrate the Capitol. The Oath Keepers deployment to Transient 3 only makes sense if there was prior planning and coordination with the Proud Boys. There are at least two maneuvers suggesting that the Proud Boys intended to get the Oath Keepers into the Capitol building.
The first maneuver was Garcia’s transit to the Crypt, which was a mistake, and then his transit to the Rotunda which may or may not have been to correct his initial mistake. However, he failed to notice the large crowd about to open the Columbus Doors from the inside. Alternatively, he may have been informing the Proud Boys’ TOC of the imminent or probable breach. His role may not have been to breach any doors but to transmit real-time intelligence to the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center. We do not know because the FBI has not released any additional Telegram communications. It is unclear if Garcia joined the Grillo crowd or ignored it.
The second maneuver that is linked to Transient 3 is the movement by Biggs, Jackman, and Rae. But it is bizarre that they went outside the building when the shortest route and the highest probability of opening the Columbus Doors was from the inside.
But there are also a series of mistakes.
Pezzola completely missed interrupting the Senate debate on live television because he was either disoriented or had not been properly briefed.
Garcia apparently went to the Crypt by accident because he was either disoriented or had not been properly briefed.
The Klein brothers have a “lost hour” where they apparently did little, though the FBI may reveal more facts about their movements. But they exit the Capitol building to open the North Door when that movement was essentially meaningless. They could have been directed to open the Columbus Doors during the “lost hour” but were not.
Biggs, Jackman, and Rae—instead of transiting the Rotunda to the Columbus Doors—took the longer, slower route around the building to re-enter the building ahead of the Oath Keepers.
When rapid movements were essential, when such movements could have made significant tactical differences in the outcome of the Capitol invasion, the Proud Boys failed multiple times.
There are several reasons for these failures that may come to light when the FBI releases more facts and more communications. But a couple of hypotheses may be corroborated in the future with additional data.
One, as will be demonstrated in Part 5 on “Planning and Coordination,” the inner core of the upper leadership of the Proud Boys on January 6—Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, Zachary Rehl, and Charles Donohoe—were obsessed with maintaining operational security and keeping all the Proud Boys off the streets on January 5. The leadership on the “New MOSD” Telegram channel were probably thoroughly briefed.
Two, because the leadership tightly controlled dissemination of any details of the plan, a plan with “many contingencies,” the task-oriented group leaders may not have fully understood the plan when it was apparently briefed at 1000H at the Washington Monument on January 6.
Three, similarly, the upper core leaders may not have been able to communicate the details of the plan to the rank-and-file Proud Boys, who would be operating on the “Boots On The Ground” Telegram channel, during the Reconnaissance March for operational security reasons.
Four, we do not know how many Proud Boys made it into the Capitol building. Thus, a shortage of manpower could have disrupted the battle plan.
Five, inside the Capitol building, the crowd’s size, meandering nature, narrow hallways, and police resistance at key chokepoints may have prevented some Proud Boys’ movements.
Six, there could have periods when the Proud Boys Tactical Operations Center could not communicate with or receive communications from the deployed task-groups because the Capitol’s WiFi system was overloaded. It is also unclear if the Proud Boys used their Baofeng radios for backup communications.
And lastly, there simply could have been poor judgement. The fact that the non-Proud Boys Grillo, DeGrave, Sandlin, and others were able to move from the Northwest Courtyard entrance, through the Rotunda, and then open the Columbus Doors for the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers on Transient 3 while the Proud Boys could not or did not, speaks volumes about their poor tactical judgement.
On the other hand, we simply do not if any Proud Boys were part of the Grillo MAGA mob.
By sheer luck—the movement and actions of Grillo, DeGrave, and Sandlin, plus a crowd estimated at between 20 and 30 rioters—the Oath Keepers on Transient 3 were able to enter the Capitol.
It is now time to examine in much greater detail Transient 3, particularly the interaction between Proud Boys activities (covered above) with both Proud Boys’ communications and Oath Keepers movements and communications. That interplay of communications and activities suggests that the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers were operating a Joint Tactical Operations Center.
The analysis of Transient 3 will also demonstrate that the design of the attack reveals the prior planning and coordination between the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers.
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