INTRODUCTION
To understand the interaction between the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers on Transient 3, we must first establish some essential facts about the command-control-control-communications-and-intelligence (C3I) of the Proud Boys.
From the government’s “First Superseding Indictment” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) of the Proud Boys’ leadership—Nordean, Biggs, Rehl, and Donohoe—we know that the Proud Boys operated two separate Telegram channels.
The leadership channel called “New MOSD” included “NORDEAN, BIGGS, REHL, DONOHOE, and a handful of additional members.” At least two of the other members were Unindicted Co-Conspirator-1 (UCC-1) and PERSON-2. The latter will be mentioned in the government’s reply on a motion to revoke pre-trial detention for Nordean (see below).
Also clarified in the later filing is that UCC-1 and Person-2 were “monitoring events remotely using livestreams and other methods.”
The second Telegram channel was called “Boots on the Ground” and that included “over sixty users.”
In other words, UCC-1 and Person-2 were the core of the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center monitoring both New MOSD and Boots on the Ground, plus livestreams, Baofeng radio transmissions, and a Zello channel. That is a lot of material to monitor, analyze, fuse, and assess, if not come to an action decision in their Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Loop (OODA Loop). It is reasonable to assume that the TOC was augmented with other Proud Boys.
If the Proud Boys organized themselves properly for a military attack, the Telegram channel New MOSD was for the leaders. Intelligence and directives would travel first on the leadership channel and then be transmitted on the Telegram channel Boots On The Ground for much wider dissemination of information, guidance, and command.
This understanding of the C3I structure will keep us from making the basic error Marcy Wheeler did in claiming that the Oath Keepers 1414H transmission indicating that the Proud Boys “‘have taken ground at the capital’” was “a quicker response than the Proud Boys Boots on the Ground channel” that was transmitted at 1419H, “‘We just stormed the capitol.’” Wheeler’s comment is based on the government’s reply cited below.
Wheeler’s claim is factually true and wrong. You cannot draw any valid inferences from it. Why?
From the government’s reply (pdf) (via EmptyWheel) to Nordean’s lawyer regarding revocation of pre-trial detention, filed 21 days after the “First Superseding Indictment” of the Proud Boys’ leadership, the government confirmed (page 4) that “When the…Proud Boys…did, in fact, storm the Capitol grounds, messages on Telegram immediately [emphasis added] reflected the event. PERSON-2 announced, ‘Storming the capital building right now!!’ and then ‘Get there.’”
The very next sentence continues in the vein of immediacy: “UCC-1 immediately [emphasis added] followed by posting the message, ‘Storming the capital building right now!!’ four consecutive times.”
On page 5 the government becomes even more specific than immediate. Now the transmissions are in “real-time,” meaning as the events are happening on the ground. As important as the “real-time” is the example: Joseph Biggs.
The government stated as fact that Biggs was providing “real-time descriptions that ‘we’ve just taken the Capitol’ and ‘we just stormed the fucking Capitol.’” Biggs’ first statement is transmitted when the Proud Boys reached the West Plaza. But there is no reason to believe that Biggs, near the very front of Transient 2 and behind Pezzola, did not continue to transmit via the New MOSD channel “real-time” Situation Reports.
In other words, the Proud Boys’ leadership and the TOC were informed via the New MOSD in “real-time” and “immediately.”
In Part 2 of this analysis, Picture 16D showed Pezzola smashing open the Northwest Courtyard window at 1412H, about 20 seconds shy of 1413H. At 1413H, the first insurgents are pouring through the two open bottom windowpanes. In Picture 14G at 1413:30, the doors are now open. In the “First Superseding Indictment,” Biggs entered the Capitol at 1414H.
If Biggs were transmitting on the New MOSD leadership channel in real-time then the Proud Boys’ TOC knew at about 1412—1413H that Pezzola was making or had made the initial breach and the initial penetration of the Capitol was occurring.
The first indication that the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center and the Oath Keepers’ Tactical Operations Center were communicating, if not co-located, comes at 1413H when Person Ten calls James for 43 seconds (see Table 1 below) and discussion here.
At 1348H, Transient 2 has breached the police line at the bottom of the Northwest Stairs and at 1411H the first rioters have reached the Northwest Courtyard and are walking and then running to the Northwest windows and doors that will soon be broken open.
We will analyze the Oath Keepers calls in greater detail and synchronize them with Proud Boys’ activities, but between 1359H and 1413H, PERSON TEN, who is the Oath Keepers’ overall ground commander on January 6, and Joshua James, the probable head of the VIP Security unit that has gone off-mission, exchange 8 phone calls, with James initiating 4 of them, with 3 of those coming at 1404H, 1407H, and 1410H, according to the Oath Keepers’ “Third Superseding Indictment” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel).
The fact that the phone calls between Person Ten and Joshua James come at 3-minute intervals suggests they were calling on a specific schedule for a specific purpose. These calls do not appear to be random.
At 1413H, the fourth phone call with an interval of 3-minutes, is made by Person Ten, which is his own fourth phone call to James in a span of 14 minutes. This call lasts 43 seconds. At 1414H, Person Ten stated on the encrypted Signal chat, “‘The have taken ground at the capital[.] We need to regroup any members who are not on mission.’” Benny Bryant tweeted me a correction stating that Person Ten [not Joshua James as I originally wrote] made that Signal post and the evidence is in Document 146, a government filing opposed to Joshua James’s “Motion For Revocation Of Detention Order.” [Updated 30 May, 2021]
We know from the “Third Superseding Indictment” of the Oath Keepers that James is at most 1 mile away from the Capitol building. If you calculate Rate x Time = Distance for a golf cart traveling at 20 mph for 3 minutes, you arrive at 1 mile in distance. The slower the golf cart moves, the shorter the distance. So, 1 mile is probably the furthest distance James, and the VIP Security unit could have been from the Capitol building. James is therefore not in the TOC.
In the “Fourth Superseding Indictment” Person One, Stewart Rhodes, at 1348H on Signal informs everyone that he is heading to the Capitol. At 1406H, again on Signal, Rhodes indicates that he is looking for Person Ten’s location at the Capitol. Thus, Person Ten cannot be co-located inside the Proud Boys TOC.
But the two Rhodes’ transmissions suggest that Person Ten, presumably at the Capitol, is either not easily findable in the massive crowd, a very reasonable assumption; that Person Ten is not at a pre-determined, easily located rendezvous point; or that Person Ten has not yet arrived at the Capitol. Only the DOJ/FBI know where and when Person Ten was during the attack. At this point, I cannot exclude the possibility that Person Ten was on Transient 2 observing the Pezzola-Biggs breach and then moving from the west side to the east side of the Capitol.
From FBI/DOJ filings and time-stamped videos we know that Dominic Pezzola started smashing the windows on the Northwest Courtyard at 1412H and at 1413H insurrectionists are climbing through the windows. And at 1414H Joseph Biggs has walked through the NW Courtyard doors. And at 1414H, Person Ten on Signal is telling the Oath Keepers, “‘The have taken ground at the capital[.] We need to regroup any members who are not on mission’” (see Table 1 much further below).
There is a strong correlation between the Proud Boys’ actions on Transient 2 and Person Ten’s communications related to the Oath Keepers for Transient 3.
I do not believe I am wrong on the correlation. But I simply do not have the correct intervening variable between Proud Boys action and Person Ten communication.
Neither the DOJ nor the FBI have reported another Zello communication that apparently happens at around the same time Person Ten is communicating on Signal.
From the WNYC podcast, advertised as “unedited,” it is impossible to tell the exact time of the transmission or who is talking. The time on the tape for the start of the transmission is 3:25 to 3:45. On the Zello tape there is someone named “Airborne America” stating the following, according to my transcription: “‘Apparently the tip of the spear has entered the Capitol building and police are coming from Washington Monument side, if you want to correct me [unintelligible]. A minute or two directions towards the Capitol. So watch your back.’”
The “tip of the spear” transmission would correspond to roughly some point between 1412H—1414H or just after the Proud Boys breach on Transient 2.
There are two people, one of whom we know is Person Ten and the other who is “Airborne America” who know about the Proud Boys breach. “Airborne America” is broadcasting that information on Zello and Person Ten is broadcasting similar information on Signal. And it appears that the tactical operations of the Proud Boys on Transient 2 are being communicated in some way to the Oath Keepers who are informing their organization via Signal and Zello.
The question is, how did two people, one of whom is a certain Oath Keeper, Person Ten, and “Airborne America” know what the Proud Boys were doing on Transient 2?
The above suggests that the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers may have been operating jointly and communicating jointly. How they were communicating jointly and in near-real time is an unanswered question. The analysis of Transient 3 intends to demonstrate that the design of the battleplan indicates that the deployment of the Oath Keepers on Transient 3 could only have been undertaken with prior planning and coordination with the Proud Boys. The prior planning and coordination will be the focus of Part 5. The execution of the Oath Keepers’ attack also depended upon joint execution and joint communications with the Proud Boys.
The intelligence analysis of Transient 3 is the foundation for the above conclusion.
The origins of Transient 3 on January 6 start at 1000H.
A NOTE ON THE OATH KEEPERS TIMELINE
[UPDATE May 30, 2021]
The following May 30 calculations of the Oath Keepers timeline has been rendered overtaken by events due to the government’s release of the “Fourth Superseding Indictment” of the Oath Keepers. Below this lengthy May 30 calculation, I will provide timeline calculations written on May 31 based on the new fourth indictment. I think it is important, however, to show how Benny Bryant’s key data changed my initial assessment. Since the May 26 analysis was based on the wrong assumption and rejection of the idea that at 1406H the Oath Keepers were still on Pennsylvania Avenue, I have deleted that portion of the assessment.
That said, as bad as the May 30 re-calculation of the Oath Keepers’ timeline is, the May 31 re-calculation of the Oath Keepers timeline even worse for the Oath Keepers. The arrival of the Oath Keepers’ “stack” at 1428H, is specified by the federal government’s evidence, according to the new indictment. This suggests that the Oath Keepers were totally dependent on the Proud Boys or some entity opening the Columbus Doors—their pre-determined area of operations destination.
BEGIN MAY 30 RE-CALCULATION
The original assessment (MAY 26) of the Oath Keepers timeline is completely revised. Benny Bryant was kind enough to tweet me evidence that the Oath Keepers at 1406H were in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences. That evidence was a photograph with a clock in the background showing 2:06 p.m., metadata from the picture-taker showing the picture was taken at 1406H, and a Google Map showing where the Oath Keepers were on Pennsylvania Avenue when the photograph was taken. Bryant also rightly pointed out that I made the wrong assumption about the 1253H time. That was the time they left the Trump speech. It was not the time I had wrongly assumed they had left the Ellipse.
With the correct assumption—there is a Preparation Time and a Total Transit Time—I can now calculate the average estimated time of departure from the Ellipse and the average estimated time of arrival at the east side of the Capitol building.
The estimated departure times are 1340H, 1342H, or 1344H, depending on the average speed of their transit (2.5 mph, 2.75 mph, or 3.0 mph) and the total length of the walk: 1.6 miles, 1.7 miles, or 1.8 miles.
The estimated average Preparation Time is 49 minutes.
The estimated average Total Transit Time is 37 minutes.
The average estimated arrival time on the east side of the Capitol is 1419H.
The total elapsed time from the time they leave the Trump speech (1253H) to the estimated average arrival time (1419H) is 86 minutes, not the 101 minutes I originally calculated.
I have deleted the original May 26 analysis from Part 4. I am now substituting the following analysis based on the data from the New York Times, Christiaan Triebert’s tweet, and Benny Bryant’s tweets.
We have two time-data points. Point A is the time the Oath Keepers leave the Trump speech at the Ellipse. The consensus view provided by the New York Times and in New York Times journalist Christiaan Triebert’s tweet is 1253H.
The New York Times article written by Stella Cooper, Ben Decker, Anjali Singhvi, and Christiaan Triebert states that the Oath Keepers are “Walking to the Capitol” and references an ambiguous Zello transmission. It is Triebert’s tweet that gives the time of 1406H. Triebert wrote, “It’s over an hour later, at 2:06 p.m., when we see this group again, now marching with hundreds of other Trump supporters down Pennsylvania Ave. toward the Capitol.”
Where exactly they are on Pennsylvania Avenue was kindly provided by Benny Bryant, as noted and linked to above. The location is the vicinity of the “Newseum Residences” and Google Maps puts that location about 1.1 miles from the Ellipse. This time-space coordinate is shown in Correction Figure 1 below. This location will be referred to as Point B in all subsequent calculations.
Google Maps calculates it would take the average person 22 minutes to walk 1.1 miles at 3 miles per hour (mph).
For the purposes of this analysis, it does not matter if the Oath Keepers were actually 1.2 miles from the Ellipse or 0.9 miles from the Ellipse. It does not matter because it is simply a time-space coordinate somewhere between the Ellipse and the east side of the Capitol building at exactly 1406H. But I think 1.1 miles is pretty close to the actual position.
For the purposes of this analysis of the Oath Keepers timeline I constructed 9 models based on 3 rates of speed and 3 total distances between the Ellipse and Capitol East. The high-end speed is 3 mph, that which is given by Google Maps. But because they could walk slower due to the crowd, I also estimated transit times using 2.5 mph and 2.75 mph. Since reasonable people can disagree on the total distance between the Ellipse (Point A) and Capitol East (Point C), I used 1.6 miles, 1.7 miles, and 1.8 miles. If the first segment of the walk is a constant 1.1 miles, then the distance between Point B, the Newseum Residences and Capitol East (Point C) are either 0.5 miles, 0.6 miles, or 0.7 miles. So we have two transit segments, Point A (Ellipse) to Point B (Newseum), and Point B (Newseum) to Point C (Capitol East).
Correction Table 1 shows the transit time between Point A and Point B for three different rates of speed.
It would take the Oath Keepers between 22 and 26 minutes to transit 1.1 miles. And if you subtract the transit minutes from the constant 1406H, then you have the estimated departure times which vary between 1340H and 1344H.
Correction Table 2 then calculates how long it took the Oath Keepers to walk from the Newseum (Point B) to Capitol East (Point C) using three different rates of speed and three different segment distances. The estimated time of arrival is calculated as 1406H, the time at Newseum, plus transit minutes from Newseum to Capitol East. The total transit minutes are the addition of minutes from Correction Table 1 (column 2) plus Correction Table 2 (column 3).
Depending upon the model, the Oath Keepers could have arrived as early as 1416H or as late as 1423H. The transit minutes range between 10 minutes and 17 minutes, but they yield an average estimated arrival time of 1419H. The total time in transit (walking) ranges from 33 minutes to 43 minutes. The average estimated Total Transit Time is 37 minutes. In fact, a Google Map estimate for the average person to travel 1.8 miles is 37 minutes at 3 mph.
Once we have calculated the time to transit from the Ellipse to the Newseum and from the Newseum to Capitol East, we can calculate the Total Transit Time. That is column 5 in the table above. And since we calculated the estimated departure times from the Ellipse, we can then calculate how much time the Oath Keepers spent in Preparation Time for their walk. Preparation Time is the time the New York Times stated they got up from their seats to leave the Trump speech to the estimated times of departure.
Correction Table 3 provides estimated Preparation Times. The average estimated Preparation Time is 49 minutes within a range of 47 and 51 minutes. What were the Oath Keepers doing for 49 minutes or so? I do not know and do not care. But if the New York Times and Benny Bryant state for fact certain that the Oath Keepers at 1406H were in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences, then the departure times are relatively fixed. And if Benny Bryant is correct that there is a difference between leaving the Trump speech and leaving the Ellipse, then any calculation of how long and when the Oath Keepers arrived on the east side of the Capitol must account for their time of travel and the time it takes them to prepare to travel.
If we add the average estimated Preparation Time to the average estimated Transit Time we can calculate a Total Time of estimate of 86 minutes.
The estimated 86 minutes is less than the 101 minutes I had originally calculated based on a wrong assumption.
We can then add 86 minutes to 1253H and calculate the estimated average arrival time.
The average estimated arrival time for the Oath Keepers “stack” formation is now 1419H.
That estimated arrival time of 1419H on the east side of the Capitol makes the Oath Keepers’ behavior more suspect. I have argued in this intelligence analysis up to this point, that the design of the attack (single envelopment, three transients) shows prior planning. And that the Oath Keepers behavior on Transient 3 indicates prior planning with Oath Keepers because their behavior makes little tactical sense without prior joint planning with the Proud Boys. How could the Oath Keepers be so nonchalant about getting to the Capitol without prior planning with the Proud Boys?
Reported in Tables 1 and 2 much further below are the phone calls made between 1253H and 1440H between Stewart Rhodes, Person Ten, Joshua James, Roberto Minuta, and Kelly Meggs.
What is missing are the Signal chats.
Stewart Rhodes has been calling since November 2020 for Oath Keepers to come to DC to stop the Chinese communist government from installing a “puppet regime” and an “illegitimate president” on January 20. And on January 6 we have the Oath Keepers walking down Pennsylvania Avenue at 1406H in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences, according to photographic evidence. Were Stewart Rhodes or Person Ten, the two people with command authority for the Oath Keepers on January 6, worrying about where they were and their estimated time of arrival? One would think so. Hopefully, the federal government will release more Signal chats or some other communications for the time period 1253H to 1440H so we know what the Oath Keepers leadership were thinking.
But it is indeed odd that neither Rhodes nor Person Ten are calling on their cell phones or using some other means of communication to inquire as to the estimated time of arrival of the Oath Keepers. There are two Zello transmissions from Watkins stating that they are “‘two blocks away’” and “‘one block away.’” At 1424H, Meggs calls Rhodes for 2 seconds—brief enough to presumably say, “We’re here” or “We’re near.”
I argue in Part 5 that it was joint planning with the Proud Boys. The much later arrival time, 1419H, instead of what I originally calculated as around 1335H, strengthens the argument for prior joint planning with the Proud Boys.
[UPDATE MAY 31, 2021, and NEW OATH KEEPERS’ TIMELINE CALCULATIONS]
The federal government has now released their “Fourth Superseding Indictment” (pdf) of the Oath Keepers (via Ken Bensinger) . In paragraph 125, the government states: “At 2:28 p.m, CROWL, WATKINS…and ISAACS unlawfully entered the restricted Capitol grounds.” The new arrival time established by the federal government is 1428H. The time at the Newseum Residences is 1406H, a point about 1.1 miles from the Ellipse.
BEGIN MAY 31 RE-CALCULATION OF OATH KEEPERS’ TIMELINE
We now have three time-space coordinates: Point A, 1253H, when the Oath Keepers leave Trump’s speech; Point B, 1406H, when the Oath Keepers are in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences; and, Point C, 1428H when the Oath Keepers “unlawfully entered the restricted U.S. Capitol grounds.” We know the time between Newseum (Point B) and Capitol East (Point C) is 22 minutes. We have estimated the distance from the Ellipse (Point A) to Newseum (Point B) is 1.1 miles, give or take a tenth of a mile. The actual distance is irrelevant for these calculations.
Since the total distance between the Ellipse and Capitol East can vary when you draw a route in Google Maps, the total distance is assumed to be either 1.6 miles, 1.7 miles, and 1.8 miles. Since the distance between Point A and Point B is a constant 1.1 miles, the segment from Point B to Point C is either 0.5 miles, 0.6 miles, or 0.7 models. Basic calculations for the rate of speed for segment B-C is given in Correction Figure 2.
Using time (22 minutes) and three distances yields three rates of speed: 1.36 mph, 1.63 mph, and 1.90 mph. With 3 different speeds and 3 different distances, we have 9 transit models to calculate.
The rates of speed for covering such a short distance need to take into account the size of the crowd walking on Pennsylvania Avenue. Fortunately, the New York Times provided a picture of the crowd in their January 12, 2021, story, “How a Presidential Rally Turned Into a Capitol Rampage” (see Correction Picture 1A). Unfortunately, and what caused me to have no confidence in the time-stamp estimates of the New York Times in their January 29 story is captured in the very same photo (see Correction Picture 1B). The Times stated that the time of the picture was 1419H. That is undeniably contradicted by the old U.S. Post Office clock in the background which clearly shows the time is 1400H.
Remember, the New York Times and Benny Bryant have shown conclusively that the Oath Keepers are walking through that throng at 1406H in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences. We do not know where in that 1400H picture the Oath Keepers are located, but that throng on the street must make for a slow rate of speed.
The only calculations we need to make is just to get a sense, using the nine models, how the Oath Keepers divided the now given 95 total elapsed minutes between leaving the Trump speech at 1253H and arriving at Capitol East at 1428H. Given Benny Bryant’s correct assumption that there is a time for preparation and a time for departure, the calculations are quite straightforward (see Correction Table 4).
Each distance has 3 different rates of speed. Time is a function of distance divided by rate of speed. For example, models 1, 2, and 3 for 1.6 miles and 1.36 mph, 1.63 mph, or 1.90 mph. Models 4, 5, and 6 for 1.7 miles and 1.36 mph, 1.63 mph, or 1.90 mph. Models 7, 8, 9 for 1.8 miles 1.36 mph, 1.63 mph, or 1.90 mph. That yields 9 estimates of total transit times.
The estimated Preparation Time is 95 minutes minus Total Transit Time, or Column 5 minus Column 2.
The estimated Time of Departure is 1428H minus Total Transit Time (minutes).
The models also provide an average Oath Keepers transit. On average, it took the Oath Keepers 64 minutes to transit from the Ellipse to Capitol East. On average, it took the Oath Keepers 31 minutes to prepare themselves to transit to their area of operations at Capitol East.
In my May 26 intelligence analysis, I had estimated a total of 101 minutes using an incorrect assumption. The May 30 recalculation had arrived at a total time spent going from the Ellipse to Capitol East at 86 minutes. Now, according to the government’s “Fourth Superseding Indictment” and data provided by Benny Bryant, the Oath Keepers’ total elapsed time from leaving the Trump speech to having deployed to their area of operations at Capitol East is 95 minutes.
I am tempted to state that this is a major tactical mistake by the Oath Keepers, though it strangely works out for them. But had they been hustling and left the Trump speech sooner and perhaps put their tactical costumes on quicker, they might have been able to enter through the Columbus Doors at 1425H.
The Columbus Doors were first opened by three individuals from the inside in a struggle with USCP officer starting at 1424H, according to the “Statement of Facts” filed with the criminal complaint against US Marine Corps officer Chris Warnagiris.
The three individuals who managed to win that struggle against the USCP have not been identified. But it cannot be ruled out that they may have been Proud Boys dressed to look like the MAGA mob.
At 1425H, according to the FBI’s “Statement
of Facts” (pdf) (via DOJ),
the USMC officer managed to let in “one by one” a “stream of individuals”
between 1425H and 1427H, when USCP officers managed to re-close the door. The
Columbus Doors would not re-open again until 1439H. The Oath Keepers did not arrive until 1428H. They missed a critical breach because they displayed little initiatve or hustle.
But even if they had entered at 1425H when Warnagiris allegedly managed to keep open the Columbus Doors, the Oath Keepers would have still failed because the Senate Chamber had essentially been emptied by about 1420H-ish.
If you combine the Proud Boys’ tactical error in not opening the Columbus Doors from the inside sooner with the Oath Keepers’ tactical error of a rather long travel time to the Capitol East grounds, you can see two unforced errors undermining their joint battle plan. In fact, had the Proud Boys opened the Columbus Doors sooner, the Oath Keepers may or may not have been ready to enter.
In Part 3 I calculated that the distance from the Northwest Courtyard doors to the Columbus Doors is about 275 feet. In terms of time to walk 275 feet at 1 mph would take 3 minutes. To those 3 minutes one would have to add an unknown number of minutes to overcome police resistance. But if the Proud Boys were determined to push the USCP out of their way, those minutes could be reduced. In fact, had Biggs and some Proud Boys left at 1414H for the Columbus Doors and arrived at 1425H, they would have been there at exactly the time that Marine Warnagiris opened the Columbus Doors for 2 minutes.
What is interesting is that Meggs gets his contingent of Oath Keepers into formation at 1435H, the exact time that Grillo and the MAGA mob are at the passageway between the Rotunda and the Columbus Doors. Only about 3 to 5 USCP officers are guarding that avenue of approach on Transient 3. Meggs and the Oath Keepers are close enough to have entered within about two minutes after the Columbus Doors are opened at 1439H.
This coincidence suggests, but does not prove, that there may have been a Proud Boy with the MAGA mob transmitting intelligence data to the Proud Boys TOC which, in turn, was informing the Oath Keepers of a development no Oath Keeper could have possibly known unless there was an Oath Keeper with the MAGA mob or the Proud Boys were telling them what was about to happen. Or their forming into the “stack” or column formation and moving up the stairs was simply a happy coincidence, a moment of cosmic serendipity.
The Proud Boys and Oath Keepers had a small window for strategic success. When the Proud Boys failed to invade the Senate Chamber by 1414H and failed to start taking Senators hostage—a chamber that would not be fully evacuated until 1420Hish, according to timelines by the Washington Post and the New York Times, the window for strategic defeat was rapidly closing.
A DOJ/FBI Mistake in the Oath Keepers’ Timeline
The DOJ/FBI claim in the “Fourth Superseding Indictment” (para 111) that at 1400H Watkins on Zello states, “‘Y’all, we’re one block away from the Capitol right now. I’m probably gonna go silent when we get there, because I’m gonna be a little busy.’”
The problem we have is that the FBI is either wrong on the time or Watkins is wrong on how far away the Oath Keepers are. Or that both are wrong. I do not know how the FBI is determining the time of a Zello transmission. What is publicly available on the WNYC website does not give proper estimates of time.
But we can establish rough time estimates for at least one Zello transmission because it references a real-world event, namely when the Proud Boys breach the Northwest Courtyard doors and windows between 1412H and 1414H. The former time is when Dominic Pezzola begins smashing the windows. The latter is when Joseph Biggs walks through the doors. At 1413H, the MAGA mob is pouring through the windows and then opening the doors from the inside. And we have strong reason to believe that the Proud Boys’ TOC knows this in “real-time.”
The statement by “American Airborne” that the “‘tip of the spear has entered the Capitol building’” must be at around 1415H, give or take a minute or two. It is only after this “American Airborne” statement that in a later part of the Zello tape does Watkins indicate that “‘We are about two blocks away’” and then “‘We’re probably one block away from the Capitol now.’”
In other words, if the “American Airborne” statement is around 1415H in real time, then Watkins’ two statements regarding her location are after 1415H. That is simple logic. And it also conforms to the May 31 revised timeline and the timeline the DOJ gives in the “Fourth Superseding Indictment.” And it means that the DOJ/FBI claim that Watkins indicated she was “‘probably one block away’” at 1400H makes no logical or mathematical sense. Watkins did not give those two location declarations before 1415H because they come later in the sequence of Zello transmissions.
Being about “‘one block away’” suggests that she was about 660 feet away from Capitol East, with 660 feet assumed to be a standard city block. Watkins could be confused as to how many blocks away she is. But I doubt she is about 4 blocks off in her estimate. At 1.63 mph, the middle range of speed, the Oath Keepers could cover 660 feet in about 3 minutes. That means that when Watkins indicated that she was about “‘one block away,’” she made that transmission at about 1425H, not the 1400H that the DOJ/FBI claims.
In Correction Table 2 above, the average (mean) transit time from the Newseum to Capitol East is 13 minutes. And the Oath Keepers were assumed to be covering between 0.5 miles and 0.7 miles. But they are covering those distances from a known time-point: 1406H. That puts their estimated mean arrival time at 1419H, or an estimated mean 13 minutes later.
We know from photographic evidence with matching metadata that the Oath Keepers at 1406H are in the vicinity of the Newseum Residences. Google Maps gives the distance between the Newseum and the west side of the Capitol building as 0.6 miles. The Oath Keepers were traveling to the east side. But 0.6 miles is 3,168 feet or about 5 blocks from the Capitol building.
The FBI/DOJ states that at 1400H Watkins and the Oath Keepers are “‘one block away’” but arrive at east side of the Capitol at 1428H. This claim makes no logical or mathematical sense. For that reason, two Zello transmissions in the “Fourth Superseding Indictment” are not included in Table 1 (much further below) because they have suspect times.
END MAY 31 RE-CALCULATION OATH KEEPERS’ TIMELINE
TRANSIENT 3: PROUD BOYS’ RECONNAISSANCE MARCH
At 1000H on January 6, the Proud Boys gathered at the Washington Monument. There may have been a separate pre-briefing of the commanders organized by Charles Donohoe before 1000H, but that has not been disclosed in government filings. The government’s “First Superseding Indictment” of the Proud Boys’ leadership states in paragraph 52, “Shortly after 10:00 a.m., NORDEAN, BIGGS, and REHL led the group, which included DONOHOE to the east side of the Capitol.”
Insurgent Hunter (aka Jan6Evidence) collected Eddie Block videos and divided them into time segments showing where the Proud Boys were, and the time elapsed between locations.
The route of this Reconnaissance March is shown in Figure 16. The march begins at 1113H from Union Square. It then views the USCP defenses at the Garfield Monument which leads to the Maryland Walkway and then the defenses at the Peace Monument which leads to the Pennsylvania Walkway. This is the route of Transient 1. Transient 2 is the slide off Transient 1 up the Northwest Stairs.
The Proud Boys then march on Constitution Avenue towards First Street NE. From the Eddie Block film segment, the Proud Boys then transited towards Northeast Drive on the Capitol grounds, turned on that walkway, and then cut across the lawn and arrived at the Capitol East Plaza at 1152H. That is the point of Jon Cherry’s iconic picture of the Proud Boys massed and riling themselves for an attack that is 1 hour from starting.
Interestingly, neither the FBI nor other researchers have noticed the dog that did not bark regarding the Oath Keepers. There is no reporting that this paramilitary organization composed of ex-military and military retirees, ever conducted a reconnaissance of their area of operations on January 6. They simply show up on January 6, wait at their staging area, and then move into the fight along Transient 3. That is strange.
Three videos provided by Insurgent Hunter showing the very initial movements of the MAGA mob removing the police barricades allowed me to calculate where the metal police barricades were located on Transient 3. They are depicted in blue on Figure 17. This Reconnaissance March to Transient 3 allowed the Proud Boys to visually confirm that the police barricades were thin, they were close to the Columbus Doors, and there were very few USCP officers stationed on the Capitol East Plaza.
Eddie Block’s video clips suffer from being filmed at such a low height with him surrounded at times by people obscuring the view. But we can recreate what the Proud Boys’ leadership and group leaders were seeing from Google street views taken years before.
Picture 21 shows the Northeast and Center East stairs and doors in December 2016. The police barricade would be closer to the viewer and thus out of view.
Picture 22 was taken in May 2017. I have superimposed the police barricade to show how close the police barricade is to the Center East Plaza stairs and Columbus Doors. The position of the police barricade and the front line of the MAGA mob become clearer in Picture 23. Notice that the MAGA mob is very close to the two lampposts shown in Picture 22. That is not an optical illusion.
Picture 23 shows two screenshots from a video taken by journalist Saqib Ul Islam accessed via Insurgent Hunter. The two screenshots form a composite showing that the police barricade depicted in Picture 22 is correct. Picture 23 shows the MAGA mob assembled just in front of the two lamps. The other two lamps on the wings are not shown.
The blue-checked journalist Saqib Ul Islam wrote on his tweet: “The moment it all started. I was filming a protester bullying a photo-journalist when the crowds toppled the barricades & ran into the #Capitol building where the joint session was going on to certify #JoeBiden’s #Election2020 victory—Congress to resume counting at 8pm now.”
The crowd did not literally run from the barricade into the Capitol building, but Islam shows how close the crowd was to the Capitol building at the “moment it all started.” Plus, as you can see no one in the crowd is moving or running forward.
Figure 17 below shows the specific geo-coordinates (red tear drop) of a Parler video taker relative to the east side of the Capitol building about one minute before the police barricade on the northeast side of the Capitol along Constitution Avenue is breached by the MAGA mob and persons unknown. I put the geo-coordinates from the his/her IPhone into Google Maps to get the precise location of the Parler video maker.
Insurgent Hunter’s analysis states that the initial breach of the police barricades along the east side occurs at 1357H. The actual location of the Oath Keepers staging area in the northeast quadrant has not been disclosed by the FBI. But the MAGA mob lined up against the police barricades and the key terrain feature of the lawn screened by large trees suggests this was the staging area.
Picture 24, taken by the same video maker at the same location shown in Figure 17, shows the MAGA mob just opposite the northern most police barricade to the right of video camera. Within 7 seconds, the police barricades at that location begin to be pulled apart and the mob will then transit south heading towards the East Plaza.
But now comes the intriguing part. We have already seen in Figure 16 above that the Proud Boys’ Reconnaissance March transited the entire northeast quadrant. Their final stop before they returned to the Peace Monument to begin the attack at Transient 1 was at the Central East stairs, as shown in Jon Cherry’s photograph.
I would argue that the Proud Boys also deposited the core of Transient 3—the main individuals who would either pull apart the police barricades or incite the MAGA mob to do so. I would also argue that the incognito Proud Boys then led the MAGA mob past the unguarded Northeast Stairs to the stairs leading to the Columbus Doors.
The design of the attack was to go through the Columbus Doors. The Columbus Doors were the schwerpunkt, the focus of effort on Transient 3.
Magically, the fates, the gods of war, Fortuna, guided the MAGA mob past the unguarded stairs and door at the Northeast and headed toward the East Plaza Center Stairs leading to the Columbus Doors where they meet the MAGA mob having breached the police barricade between the two lampposts up to the first line of USCP officers at the bottom of the Center East Stairs leading to the Columbus Doors (see Pictures 25 and 26).
Notice the black police vehicle in the lower right corner of Picture 27A? Between 1400H and 1401H we will locate the two Oath Keepers forward observers, Ken Harrelson and the FBI’s unidentified #228 who is dressed exactly as Triebert described when he was leading the Oath Keepers out of Trump’s speech.
Picture 27B shows the MAGA crowd close to lower steps in-between at least two or three police vehicles.
Picture 27C is taken from the FBI’s “Most Wanted” webpage listing photos of individuals that are un-identified but they would like to name and locate. One of those pictured is Ken Harrelson. But the FBI’s picture #228A is the Oath Keeper in the beige hat. The FBI put the yellow box around him. Harrelson is to his immediate right. Picture 27D is also from the FBI’s “Most Wanted” page and shows him in isolation.
In the DOJ’s “Fourth Superseding Indictment” at paragraph 108, both Ken Harrelson and Dolan “unlawfully entered the restricted Capitol grounds” at 1352H. That is about 7 minutes before the MAGA crowd on Transient 3 are shown tearing the barricades on the northeast and east of side of the Capitol (see photos below). In paragraph 122, at 1421H “HARRELSON and DOLAN joined the crowd on the central east steps of the Capitol.” When the Meggs-led “stack” formation reached the top of the stairs, Harrelson and Dolan joined the stack (para 133). At 1439H, one of the Oath Keepers, William Isaac joined the crowd pushing against the doors from the outside, and shortly thereafter the Oath Keepers entered the Capitol building. The fourth indictment added, in addition to Isaacs, Joseph Hackett, Jason Dolan, and REDACTED. In the unredacted “Fourth Superseding Indictment,” the redacted name is for Jonathan Walden. Of the four new indicted Oath Keepers, three are from Florida. Walden is from Birmingham, Alabama.
The most interesting finding from the “Fourth Superseding Indictment” is that the FBI’s #228 is neither revealed nor linked to Isaac, Hackett, or Dolan. More importantly, #228 has completely disappeared from the FBI’s website “Most Wanted: U.S. Capitol Violence.” In the unredacted version of the “Fourth Superseding Indictment, REDACTED is Jonathan Walden who travelled with James and Minuta in the golf carts, as Marcy Wheeler suggested.
As Marcy Wheeler observed of Watkins’ lawyer’s brief of supposedly exculpatory facts, “Her brief further describes that she and her kitted-out militia were to provide ‘escort’ to marchers to the Capitol, and she appears to know the intent was to march to the Capitol… to ensure that those marching on the Capitol were accompanied by a militia that had plans to take up arms if things went badly…. And once she left the VIP pen where she was ‘providing security,’ she put that tactical gear back on. That only serves to emphasize the degree to which she was targeting Congress.”
But, Watkins’ actions, reflective of the behavior of the entire Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation, is a pre-planned march to a pre-designated staging area in the northeast quadrant where they were to wait for the Proud Boys breach the Columbus Doors according to their joint military plan.
Indeed, the entire slow march, the short waiting in the general staging area (1428H to 1435H), the lack of activity to breach the Capitol building, and then moving just 5 minutes before the Columbus Doors are breached—even if accomplished by Grillo and the MAGA mob from inside the Capitol building—all point to one uncontestable conclusion: the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys were executing a jointly planned and jointly executed military assault on the Capitol building and the legitimate elected government of the United States performing a sacred constitutional duty on January 6.
The separate question of joint communications is difficult to solve. But the interactions strongly suggest that there were communications, direct or indirect, between the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers.
A BOYDIAN ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSIENT 3 ATTACK
The Transient 3 breach on the east side of the Capitol [at 1358H] happens just 14 minutes before Pezzola begins bashing [at 1412H] the Northwest Courtyard windows. In other words, as if the USCP and MPD did not have enough headaches, having been outflanked along Transient 2, which had slid off Transient 1 which is keeping the MPD battling in hand-to-combat against the insurgents, the police were now being enveloped in the rear by Transient 3.
The design of this attack, a single envelopment with a cheng and two chis, is a classic attack. This does not arise spontaneously. This is a designed attack.
Early in his “Discourse on Winning and Losing” briefing John Boyd introduces the Sun Tzu concepts of cheng and chi. And what these concepts tell you from an intelligence perspective is that what you may be seeing initially is a deception and you must look for the surprise or what Boyd says is more accurate to call a “hard shock.”
As Boyd summarized, “Cheng is the ordinary…the direct…the obvious…the deception” while “Chi is the extraordinary…. the indirect…. the hidden…. the surprise.” One of the purposes of cheng and chi is to play the game of concentration and dispersion which leads to the ability, among other things, to place strength against weakness in the attack.
For the single envelopment, Boyd presented the Battle of Leuctra (see Figure 18). Outnumbered two to one, Epamonidas, the Theban commander, “thinned out his center and right wing…put the stronger troops in here [left flank], so at the point of attack he had strength against weakness…. And…it’s a single envelopment scheme.”
The cheng is the troops in the center and right, while the chi is troops on the left. The Thebans put strength against weakness and then pivoted behind the Spartans to give them a surprise or “hard shock.” It is a maneuver designed to “pull apart” an adversary with a rapid, violent transient that overloads their ability to react. With only a slight modification, this is the January 6 attack on the Capitol (see Figure 19).
The staging of the Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation in the northeast quadrant of the Capitol building—basically waiting for the Columbus Doors to be breached so that Transient 3 can penetrate the Capitol building—makes no sense until you realize that the Proud Boys had to open the Columbus Doors for the Oath Keepers to enter from the East Capitol Plaza. To that consideration, it must be added that the Oath Keepers did not arrive at the east side of the Capitol until 1428H, according to the latest indictment of the Oath Keepers. At 1435H, Meggs calls the “stack” into formation, they begin marching up the stairs, and by 1441H they are through the Columbus Doors and heading into the Rotunda.
I have already shown in Part 3 that the Columbus Doors opening was accomplished by a Grillo-DeGrave-Sandlin MAGA mob from the inside. But, Joseph Biggs, the probable Transient 2 Proud Boys commander, took Jackson and Rae outside the Capitol building and arrived at the Columbus Doors just as the Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation was reaching the top of the stairs and preparing to enter with the much larger MAGA mob.
The transit, staging, and attack by the Oath Keepers along Transient 3 makes no tactical sense unless the Oath Keepers had planned and coordinated this deployment with the Proud Boys prior to the attack on January 6.
All the Oath Keepers’ main leadership are ex-military. The Oath Keepers contingent included some members who were not ex-military, for example Kelly Meggs, the “stack” commander. But all the leaders were ex-military. We know that the Oath Keepers held at least 10 planning sessions, 9 of which were organized by Kelly Meggs, the leader of the “stack” formation. His deputy, Kenneth Harrelson, organized the other one. Some of these appear to be for the overall leadership planning cell; some for southeast leaders; and some for Florida. In fact, a subsequent DOJ filing on Harrelson reported that between “September 30, 2020, and January 3, 2021, Defendant Harrelson…attended or organized approximately 30 meetings (pdf) (via Politico) on Go To Meeting that appear to be related to the Oath Keepers.”
There are no military principles the small Oath Keepers contingent could have been following that would have dictated or required a unit to sit inert hoping that a breach will occur without prior planning and coordination with a larger attacking force that had already seized the initiative. The Oath Keepers themselves displayed no initiative while making a slow march down Pennsylvania Avenue to Transient 3 while the Proud Boys were fighting along Transient 1 and Transient 2.
Pictures 28 and 29 shows Harrelson and another unidentified Oath Keeper facing the Meggs-led “stack” formation apparently shouting directions to Meggs. Harrelson and the other Oath Keeper appear to be acting as forward observers guiding the attacking force to the target (from “Criminal Complaint” (pdf) (via EmptyWheel).
THE INTERACTION OF ATTACK EVENTS AND OATH KEEPERS’ COMMUNICATIONS
Prior to examining the interaction of attack events and Oath Keepers communications, it is helpful to examine their command-and-control network. This network analysis is developed from the pattern of cell phone calls found in Tables 1 and 2.
Person One, Stewart Rhodes, who is not nominally in charge of the Oath Keepers’ operation on January 6, primarily communicates with Kelly Meggs, commander of the “stack” formation. Rhodes also communicates with Roberto Minuta, a member of the VIP Security Detail. But these communications come early and late in the operation. Person Ten, the overall ground commander, has no communications with Meggs. Instead, almost all of his phone conversations are with Joshua James, head of the VIP Security Detail. No one apparently communicates with Ken Harrelson or FBI #228 who are at the top of the stairs leading to the Columbus Doors.
There may be more Signal communications that would change this architecture or modify conclusions you can draw from it.
But the command-and-control architecture suggests a unit that was not quite unified and perhaps had more personality conflicts than we are aware of.
Two separate lines of communication are not a good sign for a military or paramilitary unit.
Table 1 shows that there is a correlation between attack events perpetrated by the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers’ communications. Table 1 has been updated with new communications found in the “Fourth Superseding Indictment.” Some of these communications were previously reported in other documents, like the Zello communications from Watkins. I have also added Oath Keeper movements, attacks, and communications after they entered the Capitol building. However, what these data show is that the Oath Keepers accomplished nothing strategically.
1253H: The First Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 1)
The first strong correlation between Proud Boys actions and Oath Keepers actions is that at 1253H the attack on Transient 1 starts and the Oath Keepers stand up to leave the Trump speech at the Ellipse.
The correlation strongly suggests that the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers ground controllers or commanders were operating from a Joint Tactical Operations Center or there was some other means of sharing information.
Within five minutes, Robert MINUTA, who stays remarkably close to Joshua James, the head of the VIP Security unit, calls PERSON ONE, Stewart RHODES, the national founder, and head of Oath Keepers. Four minutes later, Rhodes calls Minuta. While the FBI has not revealed the substance of the calls, the context suggests that Minuta was notifying Rhodes that the “stack” had departed the speech and was probably getting kitted out in tactical gear. Rhodes’ call 4 minutes later (1302H) may have been to ensure that the “stack” was getting kitted out. We have now determined that the Oath Keepers departed the Ellipse at 1324H—having spent 31 minutes getting into their tactical costumes.
The first correlation between a Proud Boys action and an Oath Keepers action also needs to be put into context. The New York Times published a picture taken at 1229H showing “Supporters leave the rally in a steady stream before Mr. Trump’s speech ends, and they head toward the Capitol.” The AP News quoted a 1228H federal law enforcement email stating, “‘Protesters moving towards the capitol down Pennsylvania, Constitution and Madison in numbers estimated 10-15,000.’”
Why did the Oath Keepers not get out of their seats for at least another 25 minutes (1253 minus 1228)? Or was the joint battle plan for the Oath Keepers to leave when the Proud Boys started the attack? The strong correlation suggests that is the case. Those lost 25 minutes would cost the Oath Keepers dearly.
1358H: The Second Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 1)
The second strong correlation between Proud Boys actions and Oath Keepers communications is at 1358H when the police barricades on Transient 3 have been breached and the MAGA mob is now moving towards the Central East Plaza steps. At 1359H Person Ten calls James and at 1400H James calls Person Ten. At 1401H Person Ten calls Person One, Stewart Rhodes and they talk for 1:41 minutes.
About 1 minute after the MAGA mob has reached the lower Capitol East Plaza stairs where they are in direct contact with the USCP officers, Person Ten calls Rhodes.
1403H: The Third Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 1)
On Transient 2, the Proud Boys have been pushing against MPD officers and one of the MPD commanders verbally shouts that the police should abandon the stairs [1403H]. At the same time, Person Ten calls James and they talk for 39 seconds. At 1404H, James calls Person Ten and they talk for 3:36 minutes. Perhaps this is a coincidence.
Or, if you read Ian Flemming’s Goldfinger, perhaps not a coincidence. As Flemming noted, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”
At 1404H, James starts the first of his 3-minute interval calls to Person Ten [1404, 1407, and 1410]. The first lasts 3:36 minutes, suggesting they were assessing the tactical situation.
1413H: The Fourth Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 1)
On Transient 2, at 1412H Pezzola begins bashing the NW Courtyard windows. Within 1 minute, on the same 3-minute interval, Person Ten calls James, probably to tell him of the new tactical situation. It is difficult to believe that this is widely known, unless you either following the correct livestream out of all the livestreams uploading that day, or, you are in the Proud Boys’ TOC and Biggs, the probable Transient 2 commander, is communicating via the New MOSD Telegram channel to the TOC.
At 1414H, Person Ten broadcasts on the Signal channel for the Oath Keepers: “‘The have taken ground at the capital[.]. We need to regroup any members not on mission.’” This message is broadcast on the Signal channel “DC OP: Jan 6 21.” This Signal channel is described in at least four government filings, the earliest being the March 8 filing related to Thomas CALDWELL.
The WNYC podcast with the “unedited” Zello tape featuring Jessica Watkins includes the previously mentioned “Airborne America” transmission that “‘Apparently the tip of the spear has entered the Capitol building.’”
So on two Oath Keepers channels, Signal and Zello, used for their January 6 operation, there are two transmissions in near-real time that the Proud Boys have breached the Northwest Courtyard windows and doors.
This Signal channel is a channel for Oath Keepers’ leaders and decision makers. We know from various government filings the select subscribers on this channel.
The “Criminal Complaint” for Kelly Meggs, the “stack” commander, and a government filing related to Watkins, factually states that Rhodes, Meggs, Harrelson, Watkins, James, and Minuta are on that channel. Person Ten, the overall ground commander, mentioned extensively in the “Third Superseding Indictment” of the Oath Keepers, must have been on the channel. Lastly, the commander of the Oath Keepers’ Quick Reaction Force or someone speaking for the QRF was also on the channel. In the government’s March 24 filing related to Watkins, at 1438H “an individual messaged the Signal chat participants, ‘QRF standing by at hotel. Just say the word…’” (pdf) (via Daily Beast).
So, the 1414H Signal message, “‘We need to regroup any members not on mission,’” pertained to those Oath Keepers’ forces not “on mission,” namely, the VIP Security unit headed by James.
The discussion of Table 2 is restricted to the attacking events and Oath Keepers’ communications between 1415H until the breach and penetration of the Columbus Doors at 1441H. The Signal and Zello transmissions, as well as the maneuvers of the Oath Keepers after 1440H only show that they accomplished nothing. They are included for the factual record.
Table 2 demonstrates that there were two more correlations between the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers.
1415H: The Fifth Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 2)
By 1415H, it should have been obvious to Proud Boy Pezzola that his attempt to invade the Senate chamber on live national television with Donald Trump watching had failed. He had followed the QAnon proponent, Douglas Jensen, who was mesmerized by Officer Goodman into a dead end. Pezzola, who was wearing an earpiece, was probably communicating that failure to the Proud Boys’ TOC via Baofeng radio or Telegram chat in “real-time.”
At 1416H, Person Ten called James for 42 seconds. Perhaps it is a coincidence. But, if it is a coincidence, it is the fifth coincidence.
Starting at 1421H there was a persistent effort by the MAGA mob to breach the Columbus Doors. Insurgent Hunter reported that at 1425H there was the first initial breach. The Washington Post video suggests that between 20 and 30 insurgents entered before the door was closed. This is seemingly confirmed by a “Statement of Facts” supporting the arrest of US Marine Corps officer Chris WARNAGIRIS. According to the FBI, between 1425H, when Warnagiris first breached the Columbus Doors, until 1427H when the USCP managed to close the door, “other individuals followed, one by one” and this was described as a “stream of individuals” (pdf) (via DOJ).
At 1424H, Meggs called Rhodes for 2 seconds. It is a highly ambiguous call. But it could have simply conveyed, “We’re here” or “We’re close.” The latter possible statement would seemingly coincide with Watkins’ Zello transmission at perhaps the same time that they were “‘one block away.’”
By 1430, the VIP Security unit has been kitted out with tactical gear and starting at 1430H they begin a 3-minute ride to the Capitol, dismounting near Third Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW (“Third Superseding Indictment” via DOJ). At 1433H, James called Person Ten, probably to notify him that they were dismounting and heading on foot towards the “stack” formation.
1435H: The Sixth Proud Boys-Oath Keepers Correlation (Table 2)
At 1435H, the VIP Security unit arrived on the east side of the Capitol and Minuta verbally berated the USCP officers standing aside and not engaging in any effort to stop the MAGA mob. At the same time, Meggs formed-up the “stack” formation and began maneuvering up the East Plaza Center stairs towards the Columbus Doors.
In the Part 3 analysis of the opening of the Columbus Doors from the inside, the MAGA mob is congregating at the entryway between the Rotunda and the Columbus Doors. This is roughly about 1435H.
The best estimate of the times come from various DOJ filings against persons not affiliated with either the Proud Boys or the Oath Keepers.
Philip Grillo enters the Capitol building at 1420H and at or by 1435H “Grillo was captured in a different surveillance camera that faces the Capitol Rotunda interior” (pdf) (via DOJ). Grillo and the MAGA mob are blocked by 3 USCP officers. A DOJ filing against Ronald Sandlin (via EmptyWheel) states that the 3 USCP officers without backup were facing a mob of “twenty to thirty” (pdf). At 1436H, according to a DOJ filing against Andrew Griswold, the crowd is “pushing aside police to open a door to the outside” (pdf) (via DOJ). And from a DOJ filing against Joshua Black (via EmptyWheel), the government stated that at “approximately 2:39 p.m., [1439H] exterior rioters began streaming in” (pdf).
The window for the Columbus Doors opening is from 1435H, when the MAGA mob reaches the entryway, to 1439H when the Columbus Doors open. The Oath Keepers Harrelson and Dolan are at the top of the stairs. Maybe they can see through the windows of the doors. But there is no indication that they were at the front of the crowd. In fact, from where they are located directing Meggs and other Oath Keepers up the stairs, it is highly doubtful that they could see the crowd inside building battling the three USCP officers. There are no communications—not telephone, not Signal, and not Zello, between Harrelson and Meggs.
Between 1431H and almost to 1437H, Person Ten and Person One engage in a 5:25 minutes conversation. Within that time-span, at 1432H, Meggs joins the conversation for 1:37 minutes. Thus, by 1434H at the latest, Meggs is off the phone with Stewart Rhodes, Person One. At 1435H, the Oath Keepers are in column formation or “stack” and marching up the stairs leading to the Columbus Doors.
How did Person One, Person Ten, and Meggs know that they should put the Oath Keepers into a column or “stack” formation at 1435H—almost the exact time that Grillo and the MAGA mob arrived near the Columbus Doors—without their ability to see inside the building? It strongly suggests that the Proud Boys may have had someone with the MAGA mob communicating with the Proud Boys’ TOC and the TOC was sharing information with the Oath Keepers. Or, the Oath Keepers had someone on the inside with the MAGA mob. But the DOJ/FBI has provided no indication that such a person, if he or she existed, was communicating with either Rhodes, Person Ten, or Meggs.
CONCLUSION
There are six correlations between Proud Boys actions and actions or communications by the Oath Keepers which suggest they are being provided information from the Proud Boys.
The Immaculate Insurrection model would dismiss these correlations as coincidences or serendipity.
The idea that this 3-transient attack with 2 attacking forces arose without any planning is difficult to believe. The Immaculate Insurrection model is not credible.
The Department of Justice’s “Six Parallel and Interlocking Conspiracies,” as accurately described by Marcy Wheeler, does not account for these correlations. The Department of Justice’s filings establish two broad conspiracies. One by the Oath Keepers and one by the Proud Boys. But the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have not made the connection between the two broad conspiracies.
The idea that this 3-transient attack with 2 attacking forces with independent planning, but no joint execution, and no near-real time sharing of intelligence is weak. The Six Parallel and Interlocking Conspiracies is plausible, but I do not think it explains the movements, and communications of the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers seemingly operating in tandem.
The Single Envelopment Three Transient model analyzes the movements and communications in the context of a military attack. This model’s analysis indicates or suggests that the overall battleplan for January 6 was jointly planned by the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys; it was coordinated by the two groups; it was jointly executed by the two groups; and there was some transfer of information from the Proud Boys to the Oath Keepers. Whether that is from having an Oath Keeper(s) embedded in the known Proud Boys Tactical Operations Center or through some other means is not known at this time. But six strong correlations suggest there was some mechanism, as yet unknown, for sharing information between the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers.
As I have argued throughout this intelligence analysis, the design of the single envelopment attack along 3 transients with 2 attacking forces reveals that the overall attack was jointly planned, jointly coordinated, jointly executed, and having joint or shared communications.
The Single Envelopment Three Transient attack model goes beyond the DOJ/FBI evidence. It provides value-added analysis of the evidence provided by the DOJ/FBI.
Part 5 analyzes the planning and coordination before January 6. Part 5 supports the conclusions in Part 4.
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